Gold ETF Forecast for the Springtime of the 21st Century

 
 Cycles of Boom and Bust 
 for the Commodity 
 and Top Exchange Traded Funds 


A forecast of the top exchange traded fund (ETF) for the gold market sets the stage for an orderly approach to investing in precious metals. In drumming up an agenda, the main vehicles for investment fall into two broad classes: the commodity itself versus the producers within the mining industry. Naturally, each mode of transport comes with its own combo of strengths and drawbacks.

In order to sketch out the prospects downstream, the deft investor looks first in the opposite direction. On one hand, the conditions of the past will never be fully duplicated in the future. Even so, the crucial features of the market are sure to crop up again and again as time goes by.

As in other parts of the economy at large, a watershed in the gold market popped up with the financial crisis of 2008 along with the Great Recession. The severe conditions of the debacle, followed by the fitful recovery of the markets in its aftermath, laid bare the raw fibers of the financial forum and the real economy.

Looking to the future, the demand for gold is slated to burgeon until at least the second half of the 21st century. The lusty trend is the prime mover behind the yellow metal over the long haul. On the other hand, the market is sure to be battered along the way by an endless hail of upthrows and downcasts.

From a larger stance, the buildup of the global economy fuels a groundswell of demand for gold. The uplift is of course a godsend for the producers of the commodity. If prices are rising, then profits should increase for the industry as a whole over the short term as well as the medium range. Over the long run, however, the inrush of newcomers in a budding field – along with the rigors of competition – can lead to the squelch of earnings for the entire cast both old and new. The cruddy outcome is an example of the distinction between the fortunes of the commodity and its producers.

These and other factors play a vital role in sizing up the prospects for the gold market. As a first step in sorting out the muddle, a primal task is to examine the behavior of the marketplace during the tumultuous period that straddled the financial crisis and its aftermath. A second thrust lies in the difference between the movements of the raw commodity versus the antics of the mining stocks. A third function is to map out the key features of the gold market over the years and decades to come.

Since the turn of the millennium, the golden metal has enjoyed a prolonged upswell in spite of the occasional setback. A case in point was the ascent that started in early 2010 and lasted until it faltered in the latter part of the following year. 

For the bulk of investors, the main vehicle for tracking the commodity lies in an exchange traded fund sporting the ticker symbol of GLD. Looking downrange, the next milestone for the index fund stands at its previous peak of some $185 per ounce. As things stand, the latter landmark will be reached in 2013. This objective lies $35 above the current support at the $150 level. In fractional terms, the increase amounts to a gain of some 23% in short order.

After regaining its previous summit, GLD will take a breather before pushing ahead once more. On current trends, the vehicle should reach a sizable barrier at the $185 mark by the following winter. 

Shortly afterward, the commodity itself will touch a price of $2,000 per ounce in the commercial market. The big round number will then kindle a gale of excitement from the mass media and the investing public.

To add to the bluster, a ragtag conga of talking heads will sashay out of the woodwork. The self-proclaimed swamis will declare that the prospects for the metal are not only bounteous but simply boundless.

The outburst of hype will drive the metal higher in the futures market that serves as the touchstone for commercial transactions in gold bullion. In that case, the tracking fund in the stock market will of course follow suit. In the dash to the upside, the next hurdle for the ETF is a price level of $195 per share.

After hitting that target, the stock will fall back toward the $185 zone. Shortly afterward, the ETF should regain its vigor and zoom past $195 within a matter of months.

The next milepost is a hefty barrier at the $220 level. The latter objective lies another $35 past the first milestone at $185. In relative terms, the advance comes out to a hike of a tad under 19%.

After reaching that outpost, GLD will stagger back toward the previous hurdle at $195. Before long, though, the rig will muster enough energy to push ahead once more. All that will take us through 2014 and into the middle of this decade.

By contrast to the raw commodity, the turnout for the mining firms depends more on the hoopla amongst the punters on the bourse than the outlook for either the yellow metal or the stock market at large. When GLD pushes past its prior peak, however, the investing public will once again chase after mining stocks.

In due course, the value of the metal in the commercial market will break through the psychic barrier at $2,000 per ounce. The resulting spate of breathless reports from the mass media will then rouse the general public into a frenzy.

Soon thereafter, the index funds for the mining firms will pare back their losses to date and shoot past their previous peaks. The surge of the mining stocks will draw in a deluge of cash from all quarters, including myriads of plungers who had never before heard about GLD, let alone the index funds for the mining firms.

And so a bubble will duly form as the madding crowd rushes into the arena for a piece of the action. At this stage, however, the savvy players in the ring will begin a gradual process of withdrawal from the futures market for gold bullion as well the index funds for the mining firms.

As the bonfire in the bazaar begins to sputter, a growing cohort of antsy players will wonder whether the uptrend in gold has run its course. And soon enough, the specter of a smashup will turn into a reality.

The ensuing crash of the market will of course deal a body blow to the mass of latecomers to the game. The first big punchout is likely to occur around 2015 or so.

Even so, the fiasco will not mark the end of the boom in gold by a long shot. After wallowing in a funk for a couple of years, the commodity will be ready to stage a bigger comeback.

As the market tramps upward and pushes past one milepost after another, millions of newcomers will jump on the bandwagon. In a fit of delirium, the gamesters in the ring will drive the metal to batty levels rivaled only by the lunacy of the Internet fever during the 1990s.

Swept aloft by the uproar, the sizzling metal will not only reach fat round numbers like $5,000 per ounce but zip right past them. There’s a good chance that figures of this magnitude will spring up by the second half of the 2010s.

Moreover the beefy prices will comprise mere waystations on a multistage journey to the $10,000 level. The latter target is likely to be reached around the 2020s.

By contrast to the raw commodity, the index funds for the mining firms depend largely on the mood of the investing public rather than the action in the commercial market. In the throes of a feeding frenzy, the equities of the major producers could vault by tenfold or more within a matter of years. Meanwhile the index fund for junior miners is apt to explode in excess of a hundredfold beyond its initial peak. 

Such is the wild ride that awaits investors of all stripes in the arena. In these ways, the antics of the gold market in the decades ahead will eclipse the tidal waves of boom and bust in all previous eras.


NOTE: The full report is a document of 24 pages in PDF form. The publication, “Gold ETF Forecast for the Springtime of the 21st  Century”, may be downloaded from the Library at MintKit Core.

*       *       *
 

Market Forecasting


Prediction of the
Financial Forum and Real Economy


Forecasting paves the way for a wholesome program of investment, whether in the financial markets or the real economy. To this end, the techniques of prediction run the gamut from the simple and casual to the complex and formal.

On the scale of rigor, the low end of the range includes a hunch by an investor that a newborn technology will create a vibrant market and render obsolete a mature industry. Meanwhile the opposite end of the spectrum is showcased by a software agent that predicts the price of a stock and learns from its mistakes in order to improve its performance over time.

An investor who wants to divine a market of any sort faces a daunting task. The stumbling blocks include the whims of human actors and the flukes of natural forces. A case in point is a ramp-up of the stock market to ditsy heights by a horde of berserk traders. Another sample involves the smackdown of a regional economy by a monstrous earthquake that knocks out a swath of manufacturing plants and power grids.

In a world racked by chance and chaos, the hapless investor is hard-pressed to peer into the future with any measure of confidence. Even so, the lack of clarity does not mean that anything goes. On the contrary, anyone with a smidgen of sense knows that some things are more likely to crop up than others.

In that case, a glimpse of the future is a matter of degree rather than category. For this reason, the meaningful question is not whether prediction is feasible, but to what extent the task can be achieved.

In a way, the forecaster encounters the same type of challenge in selecting a technique for prediction. More precisely, the apt approach happens to be relative rather than absolute. The best choice of method depends on a bunch of factors including the skills of the user and the thrust of the application.

To begin with, each approach has its strengths and drawbacks. Moreover a given method may work like a charm in the hands of one user but not another. For these and other reasons, the shrewd player weighs a variety of techniques before deciding on the right tool for the job in forecasting a market of any sort.

Read more on Market Forecasting.

*       *       *
 

Boosting an ETF with an IPO

 
How an Initial Public Offering
Can Fortify an Exchange Traded Fund


A dandy way to excel in the stock market is to beef up an exchange traded fund (ETF) with an initial public offering (IPO). By this means, the efficiency and longevity of an ETF can be bolstered by the peppy performance of an IPO.

For the bulk of investors, an exchange traded fund is the best vehicle for participating in motley markets ranging from equities and bonds to currencies and commodities. In terms of scope, an ETF may cover a broad swath such as an entire industry or the global economy at large. A case in point is an index fund based on the flagship benchmark of the stock market; namely, the Standard & Poor’s index of 500 stalwarts on the bourse.

Looking in the opposite direction, a communal pool could focus on a compact niche. Examples of this stripe run the gamut from computer hardware and real estate to foreign currencies and precious metals.

Whatever the choice of market, though, an initial public offering can perk up the return on a portfolio. Since the autumn of the 20th century, a raft of studies have shown that an IPO is wont to outpace the bourse as a whole during the first year or two of its debut.

On the downside, though, the basic equities of operating companies are in general inapt as the main vehicles for investment by the bulk of players. The danger lies in the vulnerability to bombshells in every industry ranging from mining and shipping to software and banking. The menace springs from a fact of life which is ignored by the simplistic models of financial economics. In the real world, companies of all stripes trip up and go bust all of a sudden, or fade out and die off in slow motion.

By contrast, an index fund is much more likely to lead a long and productive life. The longevity of the vessel springs from the ceaseless process of renewal as the flagging members of the pantheon are replacing by the rising stars in the marketplace. For this reason, the best course for the prudent investor is to funnel most or all of their savings into communal pools based on market benchmarks.

On a negative note, a market index is wont to track the established firms within a particular domain. In that case, the corresponding fund will contain little or nothing in the way of newborn ventures.

On the upside, though, the fresh-faced stocks tend to outpace their older peers; and likewise outrun the bourse as a whole. For this reason, a canny investor can perk up the return on investment by fleshing out a primary position in an ETF with a secondary stake in one or more fledgling stocks within the same niche.

For the sake of concreteness, we examine these ideas by way of an ETF in the energy sector along with examples of IPOs in the target domain. The case study involves an index fund for a master limited partnership (MLP), a type of vehicle which is highly suited for the sober investor bent on sound returns at low risk. In this corner of the stock market, the standard bearer lies in an exchange traded fund that trades under the ticker symbol of AMLP.

Read more on Boosting an ETF with an IPO.

*       *       *
 

How to Invest in Gold ETFs

 
Top Exchange Traded Funds
for the
Commodity and Its Producers
 

A handy way to invest in gold is to take up communal vehicles known as exchange traded funds (ETFs). The mission of the funds is to track the market for gold via direct or indirect means. In the upfront approach, a communal pool holds a stockpile of gold bullion. For the oblique mode, the custom is to hold the stocks of companies engaged in the mining industry by way of exploration, extraction or other functions.

This article examines the top 3 exchange traded funds for the gold market. The first pool takes the direct approach by amassing a trove of the raw commodity. Meanwhile the other two vehicles rely on the indirect tack by holding stakes in the equities of the leading firms in the field.

Read more on How to Invest in Gold ETFs.


*       *       *
 

Best Timespan for Market Analysis


Guide plus Showcase
of Exchange Traded Funds
for Emerging and Developed Markets


The best choice of timespan for a performance review depends on the status of the investor as well as the state of the market. In this way, a fitting window in the backward direction is closely tied to the planning horizon going forward coupled with the likely conditions downrange.

In that case, the impact of an unusual event in the past ought to be downplayed or excised entirely. To this end, one approach is to select a short window that excludes the exceptional fluke. The second ploy is to pick a prolonged stretch that serves to dilute the impact of the aberrant case on the marketplace.

Depending on the context, the investor may have scant choice regarding the use of one approach or the other. An example involves a youthful asset which has little to offer in the  way of a price history. In that case, the use of a prolonged window is out of the question.

An apt choice of timespan applies to any type of market, whether tangible or virtual. An example is found in a lonesome stock or a personal portfolio, a raw commodity or a national economy.

In the modern era, a glaring anomaly cropped up with the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath. The bombshell sparked the worst smashup of the financial system since the Great Depression of the 1930s, along with the biggest flop of the global economy since the Second World War. As a result, the blowup was an oddball on a whopping scale which is unlikely to recur in the near future.

Given this backdrop, a wanton choice of time frame for market analysis could lead to warped results which have scant relevance to the prospects downrange. In that case, the cogent approach is to tone down or cut out the extreme effects resulting from the financial catastrophe.

These issues are examined by way of a case study dealing with exchange traded funds for the emerging regions as well as developed markets. The quartet of index funds under review includes a couple of vehicles which in some sense straddle the entire planet. By contrast, the remaining two vessels focus on a pair of individual countries; namely, the U.S. and Britain which serve as spearheads of the financial forum and the real economy for the world at large.

Read more on Best Timespan for Market Analysis.

*       *       *
 

Charade of the Debt Crisis


 From Buffoonery to Tragedy 
 in the 
 Debt Folly and Euro Farce 


A rampant blunder in real and financial markets involves a mix-up between the destination and the journey. A showcase cropped up with the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath. During the debacle, frantic politicians wasted mounds of public funds even as they chose to cripple the financial forum and the real economy. From a larger stance, a solid grasp of means and ends is the first step toward thrashing out a cogent agenda in any domain.



*



In complex fields such as finance and economics, a common bungle involves a mix-up between the destination and the journey. The confusion is showcased by the hoopla during the financial crisis of 2008 in tandem with the debt crisis in Europe.

Among the raft of muck-ups, one sample was the batty policy of the politicos for propping up the market for sovereign bonds in Southern Europe. According to the rhetoric of the ringleaders, an official default by Greece or any other country in the vicinity would shatter the common currency in Europe, then clobber the regional economy as well as the entire planet.

No doubt some of the actors in the public sector were taken in by the sham arguments. If so, the goof-up stemmed from a patchy grasp of financial and economic issues. An example of this sort lay in the proper role of the banking industry in the economy at large. Another instance involved the true purpose and import of a currency union across neighboring countries.

Amid the din and smog, the politicos plundered the public treasury in order to prop up the bludgeoned securities. Sadly, the inept move was a whopping waste of the taxpayer’s money. Worse yet, the boondoggles hampered the real and financial markets, thus ensuring that the entire population would lose trillions of dollars worth of income foregone due to a crippled economy.

In any field of human enterprise, a solid grasp of means and ends is the first step toward fixing up a worthwhile solution while cutting down waste and beefing up productivity. The next step is to thrash out a trenchant plan that exploits the opportunities and avoids the pitfalls in the arena. The third task is to put the resulting plan into action with gumption and dispatch.


Note: This report is available from major distributors and retailers of electronic books. A notable example lies in Smashwords or Amazon.




The ebook is offered in a variety of formats ranging from PDF and HTML to EPUB and MOBI. For instance, clicking the image above will bring up detailed information on the version for Amazon Kindle.


*       *       *

 

Guide to Global Investing

 
Top Resources for Growth Markets


The markets of the world continue to merge into a single ball of complexity. The ties that bind stretch across national borders as well as asset classes. Amid the ferment, the opportunities in the marketplace can crop up in diverse forms in distant countries as well as nearby locales. The same is true of the threats, whether blatant or subtle, that lie in wait for the zealous investor in a hurry.

As an example, a crash of the stock market in the U.S. is sure to whomp the currencies in Asia as well as the commodities in Africa. Given the host of linkages amongst disparate markets, the shrewd investor keeps track of a welter of asset classes as well as geographic locales.

Another hallmark of the millennium is the wealth of resources available on the global infobahn. The Web is a boundless source of information on diverse markets round the planet.

The purpose of this survey is to present a roll call of vital resources for the earnest investor bent on sound growth in a global marketplace. The nuggets in the lineup run the gamut from tutorial articles and market reviews to news portals and forecasting hubs.


Note: This report is available from major distributors and retailers of electronic books. A notable example lies in Smashwords or Amazon.




The ebook is offered in a variety of formats ranging from PDF and HTML to EPUB and MOBI. For instance, clicking the image above will bring up detailed information on the version for Amazon Kindle.


*       *       *

 

How to Grow and Prosper

 
Basic Laws of Personal Productivity,
Competitive Strategy and Public Policy


A universal set of guidelines can serve as the groundwork for progress and prosperity in any domain. For this purpose, the basic laws of growth deal with the selection of hearty goals along with their pursuit with rigor and dispatch.

The principles apply to the panoply of human enterprise, ranging from personal affairs and corporate strategies to government policies and international programs.


*


Growth and prosperity are hallmarks of the modern culture. The folks bent on forging ahead run the gamut from the workman and entrepreneur to the executive and politician.

For all the yearnings of progress, however, it’s hard to find anyone who goes about the business of advancement in a coherent way. Instead, the usual shtick suffers from a welter of lapses and missteps that trip up the decision maker. As a result, the mass of effort brought to bear on the task is haphazard and disjointed, or even worthless and downright counterproductive.

On the bright side, though, a universal set of maxims can serve as the foundation for a lucid course of action in any domain. In this light, the Code of Growth is applicable to the panoply of human endeavor, ranging from personal affairs and corporate campaigns to economic policies and multinational programs. From a different angle, the functions in hand run the gamut from creative work and vaulting innovation to financial regulation and international trade.

In a nutshell, the purpose of this primer is to explain how the basic laws of growth can be applied to the totality of innovation and enterprise in a world of constrained resources. The general guidelines are relevant to progressive projects in any domain, ranging from personal advancement and corporate strategy to public policy and global growth.


Note: This report is available from major distributors and retailers of electronic books. An example of a service provider is Smashwords, whose offering can be accessed by clicking the image below.




The document is available in a variety of formats ranging from PDF and HTML to EPUB and MOBI.


*       *       *

 

Market Timing via Monthly and Holiday Patterns


A Free Lunch in the Stock Market


The stock market displays a medley of patterns that can serve as the crux of a timing strategy. A showcase lies in the oft-seen surge of the market around the turn of the month as well as the run-up to a holiday.

As with all things, the timing strategy does have its shortcomings. An example involves the need to dart in and out of the market more than a dozen times a year in order to take full advantage of the patterns.

Another drawback stems from the higher rate of income tax on short-term profits as opposed to long-run gains in the stock market. The precise impact will of course depend on the specific circumstances such as the trader’s country of residence.

Despite the hassles, though, trading with the calendar can produce a higher payoff at less risk than the humdrum policy of buying stocks and holding them indefinitely. For this reason, a timing strategy based on monthly cycles and market holidays represents a free lunch on Wall Street.

Read more on Market Timing via Monthly and Holiday Patterns.


*       *       * 
 

 

Forecasting Crashes of the Stock Market

 
Impact of Cycles versus Bubbles
at the
Dawn of the 21st Century
 

The stock market can crash whether or not a bubble exists. A showcase was the smashup of 2011 which popped up in tune with the long-range pattern of bombshells but otherwise without any good reason.

The pointless breakdown had one positive outcome. Given the confirmation of the running sequence of crackups, the schedule of flaps appeared to be on track in spite of the partial derailing linked to financial crisis of 2008.

For the wordly investor, the main event of 2011 was the blowup of the stock market in the U.S. and elsewhere, along with the bedlam in kindred fields such as commodities and currencies. As is often the case, the mayhem caused by the participants in the arena – be they part-time amateurs or full-time professionals – was for the most part a premature and avoidable ordeal for the entire community.

The teardown of the markets was prompted by the specter of a full-blown recession in the global economy within half a year or so. One reason for the jitters stemmed from the fitful progress of the industrial nations such as the United States, Britain and Japan. Another factor lay in the brouhaha over the debt crisis in Europe, along with widespread fears of a breakup of the euro along with the collapse of the regional economy.

For a number of years, the politicians in the developed world had been going out of their way to prop up the distortions in the marketplace that arose during the run-up to the financial crisis of 2008. Instead of prolonging the malady, the politicos ought to have left the economy alone to heal itself. Better yet, public policy could have helped to undo the damage done throughout the entire meshwork of production and distribution. Thanks to the counterproductive moves of the pols, however, the economy was doomed to struggle and flail for many years to come.

On a positive note, the crash of the stock market in 2011 showed up in sync with the long-running schedule of meltdowns. For this reason, the sequence of blowups appeared to be on track despite the partial derailing linked to financial crisis of 2008. As a consequence, the next crackup of the bourse could well occur around 2017 in line with the ongoing chain of flaps in the modern era.

*

Note: This report is a revised and extended version of an article published last year titled Forecasting the Next Crash of the Stock Market. The new publication is available from major retailers of electronic books. An example of the latter is Amazon, whose offering can be accessed by clicking the image below.



*       *       *

 

Top 3 Exchange Traded Funds for the Middle East

 
ETF Comparison for
Egypt, Israel and Turkey against USA


For the worldly investor, a handy way to access the Middle East – including the frontier markets of Egypt, Israel and Turkey – is to take up the corresponding exchange traded funds (ETFs) listed in the USA. In this article, we examine the performance of the index funds in the context of the American market which serves as the bellwether for the bourses of the world.

The ETFs are compared in terms of growth along with the risk entailed. For a balanced view of performance, the period of evaluation should cover a stretch in which the market has experienced a boom as well as a bust. The index funds can then be weighed in view of the return on investment coupled with the degree of volatility.

These factors are examined for the index funds dealing with Egypt, Israel and Turkey; namely, EGPT, EIS and TUR respectively. Moreover, the three pools are compared against the behavior of SPY, the flagship fund for the American bourse.

Comparing Exchange Traded Funds

To obtain a rounded view of performance, an investment vehicle ought to be assessed over a longish period that includes at least one upsurge and one blowup of the market. As a counterpoint, though, the field of exchange traded funds is still in its infancy. For this reason, a lot of funds are relative newcomers to the marketplace.

A case in point is the Market Vectors Egypt fund, which trades in the U.S. market under the ticker symbol of EGPT. The communal pool was launched only in February 2010. As a result, the index fund does not have much of a history.

Even so, the turmoil in the equity market over the past year turns out to be an advantage for our purposes here. Given the crash of the U.S. bourse in the second half of 2011, a span of two years is more than sufficient to include an upswell as well as a meltdown of the market.

On a negative note, though, a couple of years is scarcely enough to lend a lot of weight to precise tallies of performance for any type of asset. For this reason, we will rely for the most part on a qualitative survey of the index funds.

In line with earlier remarks, the U.S. bourse serves as the queen bee of the stock markets round the globe. Moreover, the most popular benchmark of the American market among professional investors lies in the S&P 500 index. The latter yardstick is represented by the index fund flying under the banner of SPY.

In this environment, we will compare the performance of the exchange traded funds for the Mideast against their U.S. counterpart. We begin with a visual scan of the action in the marketplace, then take a quick look at a clutch of numeric results.

Graphic Portrait

In sizing up any kind of asset, an initial step is to examine a graphic display of the market. Moreover, a composite chart of the price action can provide a visceral grasp of the relative performance of the vehicles.

For this purpose, we turn to Yahoo Finance (quote.yahoo.com), the most popular portal for investors on the information highway. In the chart below, the blue line depicts the behavior of SPY over the course of 5 years ending in May 2012.




By contrast, the red curve portrays the path of the index fund for Israel. Meanwhile, the purple arc shows the corresponding trail for Turkey.

The disparity in age amongst the funds is plainly visible in the display. For instance, the vehicles for both Israel and Turkey came to life in March 2008. Since each vessel is less than half a decade old, its path does not cover the full breadth of the chart. 

As an aid to grasping the relative performance of the assets, the lines for both EIS and TUR start off at the corresponding level for SPY. In other words, the price levels have been recast so that the curves for Israel and Turkey upon their inception match up with the status of their American counterpart at that stage. Given the common point of reference, any divergence among the arcs from that point onward reflects a gap in performance.

From the diagram, we can see that SPY thrashed around violently over the span of half a decade. By the end of the assay period, though, the index fund managed to recover most of the losses suffered during the financial crisis of 2008 as well as its aftershocks.

The chart above spotlights the fact that the frontier markets were much more volatile than the U.S. Despite the tumult, though, the index fund for Turkey ended up pretty much where it started upon its debut in the marketplace.

Meanwhile, the vehicle for Israel was less flighty than its Turkish counterpart. On the downside, though, EIS has been unable to shake off the doldrums since the crash of the stock market in the second half of 2011. No doubt a big reason for the funk lies in the ongoing war of words over the program of nuclear development in Iran, a flap that could easily lead to a military clash in the years to come.

On the other hand, the green line on the chart portrays the movements of the index fund for Egypt. In line with the norm for most countries, the Egyptian bourse plunged as the U.S. market slumped in spring 2010. On the upside, though, EGPT began to recover during the second half of the year.

Then a bombshell popped up at the beginning of 2011, as a popular revolution in Egypt toppled the dictator who had ruled the country for nearly three decades. In the muddle that followed, the nation stumbled along without any form of government to speak of. Not surprisingly, the stock market went into free fall for the remainder of the year.

On the upside, though, EGPT has been recovering smartly since the turn of the year. The rebound reflected an uplift in investors’ spirits as they awaited a general election to install a genuine president during the summer of 2012.

Performance Figures


As we noted earlier, the exchange traded funds for the Middle East can only offer short histories. For this reason, it makes scant sense to quibble about small differences in performance.

Even so, we can examine a few numbers for the sundry vehicles. According to Yahoo Finance, EGPT turned in a return of negative 10.32% over the course of a year ending on 30 April 2012. On a cheery note, however, the index fund sported a healthy gain of 36.58% since the beginning of 2012.

By contrast, the communal pool for Israel clocked a payoff of negative 24.12% over the span of 12 months ending in April 2012. On the other hand, the performance over the course of three years ending on the same date came out to positive 9.60%. Another cheery result was a gain of positive 10.36% since the beginning of 2012.

Meanwhile, the index fund for Turkey suffered a return of negative 25.18% over the span of 12 months ending in April 2012. On the upside, though, the payoff over the past three years came out to plus 21.96%. Moreover, the gain since the onset of 2012 was positive 25.89%.

Wrapup of Past and Future Prospects


Over the long haul, the frontier markets of the Middle East represent some of the most promising tracts for the cosmopolitan investor. On the downside, though, the entire region has had a long history of strife and chaos since at least the dawn of civilization.

On the bright side, the popular revolutions across the Middle East over the past couple of years has brought the light of democracy to an expanding fraternity of nations. The Arab spring is a watershed that will surely usher in a wholesome era of peace, stability and growth throughout the region in the millennium.

In that case, the beleaguered nations of the Mideast will be able to spread their wings and fulfill their potential in earnest. For this purpose, the assets at hand span the gamut from petroleum reserves to human resources.

In the meantime, though, the intrepid investor has to contend with the gorgon of high volatility in return for the prospect of bountiful returns over the decades to come. In this effort, a promising place to start is to sift through the U.S. bourse and mull over the lineup of exchange traded funds focused on Egypt, Israel and Turkey.

Further Information

In sizing up an asset for investment in any domain, the prospective return has to be weighed against the risk entailed. The crucial factors to consider are surveyed in the section on Financial Risk at MintKit Core.

A primer titled “How to Invest in Exchange Traded Funds” talks about the crucial issues relating to growth and risk for the popular vehicles. The review also applies the generic concepts to a case study of index funds for the emerging markets of Brazil, China, India and Russia.

The data available on exchange traded funds is often patchy, faulty and/or misleading. The stumbling blocks, along with defensive moves for the guarded investor, are discussed in an article on “Cruddy Information on Exchange Traded Funds”.

*       *       *

Performance of Energy ETFs

 
Comparison of Top Exchange Traded Funds 
for Equity and Commodity Markets
 
 
The exchange traded funds (ETFs) for the energy sector include vehicles for tracking the price of crude oil in the commercial market as well as the equities of operating companies listed in the stock market. Among the index funds in this sector, a stalwart lies in United States Oil; the exchange traded fund is listed on the U.S. bourse under the ticker symbol of USO. On the other hand, the primo focused on the equity market is found in the Energy Select Sector SPDR, which flies under the banner of XLE.

This articles examines the performance of the two beacons over the span of 5 years ending in spring 2012. On one hand, the energy branch of the stock market has a bunch of unique properties due to its heavy reliance on the fortunes of crude oil in the real economy. Despite the close linkage to the physical market, though, every exchange traded fund is also an equity traded on a stock exchange.

For this reason, a vital question for the worldly investor is the performance of USO and XLE compared to the stock market at large. In the latter case, the flagship fund for the equity market as a whole lies in the tracking vehicle for the S&P 500 index; the exchange traded fund goes by the symbol of SPY.

Given this backdrop, we examine the performance of USO and XLE and compare the results against the turnout for SPY. In the appraisal, the key criteria take the form of volatility, payoff, and risk-adjusted gain.


Chart Action for Exchange Traded Funds

In order to obtain a rounded view of performance, we need to select a time frame that includes a boom as well as a bust of the market. For this purpose, a fitting window is the period of half a decade ending in spring 2012. The interval includes the crash of the stock market in 2008 and 2011, in tandem with the crackup of the energy sector. The tumult in the equity market has been accompanied by similar turmoil in the futures market, where the contracts for crude oil mirror the outlook for petroleum in the real economy.

The chart below, courtesy of MSN Money (money.msn.com), covers a span of 5 years ending in April 2012. The reddish curve depicts the path of the USO fund, which is designed to track the price of crude oil.


On the other hand, the purple arc denotes the course of XLE. The latter vehicle holds the stocks of the producers working in the oil and gas industries as well as the suppliers of equipment and services to the primary vendors.

Meanwhile, the blue squiggle in the chart above depicts the course of SPY. The latter fund tracks the Standard & Poor’s index of 500 giants in the stock market by holding a basket of the corresponding equities. Thanks in large part to the vast pool of assets under management, the index fund is highly efficient. To wit, the tracking vehicle replicates the performance of its target index with hardly any discrepancy.

Getting back to USO, we can see from the chart that the tracking fund for crude oil had a wild ride, especially near the beginning of the 5-year period. The ETF soared until the middle of 2008, then suffered a massive setback over the next half-year and more. In the years to follow, the index fund bounced around without going anwhere fast.

At the end of the evaluation period, USO turned in the worst performance amongst the trio of index funds under consideration. In fact, the chart would suggest that the deadbeat lost roughly 20% of its value over the span of 5 years.

By contrast, SPY was a lot more demure than the two other funds. On the downside, though, the index fund appears to have slipped by a handful of percent during the period of appraisal.

Meanwhile, XLE was more flighty than SPY but less hysterical than USO. The winsome feature of the energy fund was its ability to eke out a few percent in gains over the course of half a decade.

The foregoing chart gives us an intuitive sense of the action in the marketplace. Our next step is to beef up the visceral view with a clutch of numerical data.


ETF Comparison by Volatility and Return

In this section, we examine the numbers for the index funds over the course of half a decade ending in spring 2012. The data in this section come from Yahoo Finance (finance.yahoo.com), the most popular site for investors on the Internet.


Volatility of the Index Funds

In gauging the performance of the stock market as a whole, the S&P 500 index is the benchmark of choice for professionals and researchers alike. As we noted earlier, the popular yardstick is tracked by the index fund marked by the ticker symbol of SPY.

On the whole, the tracking fund does a good job of replicating its target benchmark. The tight linkage is reflected in the beta factor, which denotes the relative movement of the tracker compared to the quarry.

Over the period of 5 years ending in March 2012, the value of beta for SPY was 0.99. The latter figure indicates that the index fund rose by 0.99 percent on average whenever the benchmark itself swelled by 1 percent; and likewise for movements to the downside.

By contrast, the USO fund sported a beta value of 1.32 over the same stretch. In other words, the index fund – whose goal is to track the price of crude oil – bounced around by nearly one and a third percent for every percentage move of the S&P index.

Meanwhile, the corresponding figure for XLE was 1.05. Based on the latter figure, the energy fund was a tad more volatile than the market index for the bourse at large.


Annual Return on Investment

According to Yahoo Finance – which draws on multiple streams of data provided by a band of respectable sources – the “Mean Annual Return” for SPY over the course of 5 years came out to positive 0.31 percent a year. The latter figure is somewhat at odds with the price chart displayed above, which appears to show that the average payoff for the flagship fund was slightly negative.

No doubt one reason for the discrepancy stems from the slight mismatch of time frames. In particular, the foregoing chart spans a window of half a decade ending on 11 April 2012. By contrast, the numeric value for the average return refers to the stretch of 5 years ending on March 31 the same year.

On the other hand, the small difference of a week and a half in the horizon is unlikely to account for the full extent of the discrepancy. No doubt a second reason for the mismatch stems from the iffy nature of information on exchange traded funds: the data available from service providers often turns out to be faulty and conflicting.

The muddled state of affairs is showcased by a contrary piece of information on the same Web page at Yahoo Finance. Before we delve into this topic, however, we should first introduce an additional factor relating to the performance of an asset. In particular, the alpha factor denotes the absolute return on investment for a stock when the volatility of the bourse as a whole is ignored.

According to the data sheet served up by Yahoo Finance, SPY turned in an alpha value of minus 0.06 percent a year on average over the course of half a decade. The negative outcome is consistent with the downbeat turnout for the index fund portrayed by the chart above.

Despite the conflicting information, though, we will not quibble here over small differences in outcome. In particular, the mismatch amongst the figures – in the visual as well as numeric modes – appears to be modest.

For this reason, we will not worry overmuch about the divergent results. The main purpose of the analysis at this juncture is to obtain a rough idea of the comparative performance of the index funds. The review here may then serve as a starting point for further digging by the serious investor. More generally, the prudent gamer conducts a thorough program of due diligence before making a concrete decision to invest in any type of market.

According to the numeric data, the mean annual return for USO was positive 0.04 percent a year. The latter figure turns out to be a mite smaller than the corresponding value of 0.31 percent reported for SPY.

More to the point, however, the value of the alpha factor for USO was deemed to be minus 8.43 percent a year on average. The grody result is more in tune with the outcome in the chart above. The negative payoff also happens to jive with the risk-adjusted gain to be examined in the next subsection.

Turning now to the energy fund, the mean annual return for XLE was positive 0.71 percent. The foregoing numbers are consistent with the price chart, which shows that XLE outpaced both USO and SPY by a clear margin.

In addition, the alpha factor for the energy fund came out to positive 4.55 percent a year. The winsome reading is compatible with the superior performance of XLE depicted by the mean annual return as well as the price chart.


Risk-Adjusted Return

The mindful investor wants to enjoy a positive return on investment in concert with a low level of risk. Unfortunately, the two factors of payoff and risk are in general conflicting traits. Put another way, higher gains tend to require greater risk.

In talking about the perils of investment, a standard mode of risk lies in the flightiness of a security. More precisely, an asset whose price bounces around wildly is deemed to be risky.

From a pragmatic stance, the erratic action in the marketplace can be profiled by a statistical measure known as the standard deviation. For our purposes here, we need only note that a large value for the standard deviation of the price level corresponds to a high level of risk for the asset.

The opposing dimensions of payoff and turbulence can be combined into a single measure of performance called the risk-adjusted return. For this purpose, a popular gauge is found in the Sharpe ratio which refers to the average return divided by the standard deviation.

Over the course of half a decade, the Sharpe ratio for SPY came out to positive 0.14. We can interpret the latter figure by saying that the index fund scrounged up a gain of 0.14 percent for every percentage point of turbulence.

By contrast, the Sharpe value for USO during the period of evaluation was negative; namely, – 0.02. The latter value is consistent with the crummy performance based on the alpha factor.

Meanwhile, the corresponding value for XLE was a Shape quotient of 0.29. The energy fund managed to edge out SPY, which trailed behind with a risk-adjusted gain of 0.14. The flagship fund in turn performed somewhat better than the negative showing turned in by USO.

For the bulk of investors, the precise value of the Sharpe ratio is less important than its relative size. That is, an asset with a higher level of risk-adjusted gain is preferable over a contender with a lower value. Based on the data at hand for the risky gain, XLE managed to trump both its competitors.


Recap of ETF Performance

The foregoing tally of index funds shows that XLE turned in the best performance. By contrast, SPY put in a lackluster showing. Meanwhile USO lagged behind both its rivals by a comfortable margin.

On a note of caution, though, the muster of numeric data was somewhat inconsistent. For this reason, the results presented here should be viewed as suggestive rather than definitive.

Sad to say, but the world of exchange traded funds is rife with scrappy information that turns out to be incorrect, incomplete and misleading. For this reason, the earnest investor has to tread carefully in venturing into the treacherous terrain.


Tips

An investor in any type of market faces a slew of risks both subtle and obvious. A survey of the pitfalls that lie in wait is available in an article titled, “Financial Risk”. A link to the writeup is given in the Resources section below.

An ETF structured as an index fund can provide the deft player with a handy way to outshine the bulk of investors ranging from part-time amateurs to full-time pros. The reasons for the exceptional feat, in tandem with the winning approach, are presented in an article called, “How to Beat the Investment Funds”.


Caveats

As we saw earlier, the information available on exchange traded funds is often incorrect, outdated, and/or misleading. In fact, the case study we examined encountered a problem in which the data displayed on a single Web page happened to be inconsistent.

The welter of pitfalls confronting the hapless investor are explained in an article titled, “Cruddy Information on Exchange Traded Funds”. In addition, the review presents a variety of workarounds for dealing with the muddle in the marketplace.

Of the three funds we examined, USO turned in the worst performance. Unfortunately, the crummy showing is not merely a fleeting aberration but a chronic affliction. In other words, the dismal performance of the tracking fund is slated to crop up repeatedly over the long range.

The main cause of the problem lies in the grind of transaction costs entailed in tracking the market for crude oil. The frictional loss is in turn grounded in the fact that the index fund does not hold a stockpile of petroleum. Rather, the stewards of the vehicle rely on a suite of derivative instruments such as futures contracts and forward contracts.

In theory, the use of secondary assets need not pose a problem in tracking a target market. In practice, though, the indirect approach sets up an additional layer of friction and risk compared to the direct scheme of holding the target asset in its original form.

The detailed reasons for the lousy showing of USO lie beyond the scope of this article. The roots of the underperformance, as well as other bugbears associated with the indirect approach to investment, will be explained in a future article on the strengths and drawbacks of sundry types of exchange traded funds.


Resources on the Web

A review of motley forms of risk is available in an article titled “Financial Risk”. 

A survey of faulty information on ETFs, along with countermeasures for serious investors, is given in “Cruddy Information on Exchange Traded Funds”. 

The following article talks about the use of index funds in order to trounce the bulk of actors in financial markets, ranging from casual amateurs to committed professionals: “How to Beat the Investment Funds: Outrun Most Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds while Earning a Bonus”.



*       *       *

 

Getting Out of Debt Can Pave the Way for a Sound Approach to Investment

 

The article below is a contribution by Marlon Powell on taming the gorgon of debt as a launchpad for a sound program of investment. When Marlon first brought up the idea of a guest post on the subject, the suggestion came to us as a surprise. It seemed unlikely that the readers of our blog would have much need for debt consolidation or related measures.

Granted, it might make sense for a sober person to obtain a loan in an exceptional case. An example lies in a mortgage to buy a home as an alternative to paying rent.

On the other hand, taking on debt is in general a costly way to finance any kind of personal activity. For this reason, the shrewd readers to whom our blog is addressed should be savvy enough to shun from the outset most or all forms of indenture.

In the world at large, however, the practice differs from the prescription in a big way. In particular, an overhang of debt is a widespread problem in rich countries as well as poor ones. As a result, a lot of people we encounter in our daily lives could be struggling with the hydra of debt.

In that case, it would make sense for everyone to learn more about the snags and fixes in this area. The background knowledge should provide a sturdy foundation for informed discussion with other folks. Without further ado, we turn now to the guest article.

– Steven Kim





The attractions of a hearty program of investment are obvious to many people, including those struggling with debt. For this reason, a common question asked by debtors is the following: “Should I pay off my debt first or invest the cash I have on hand?” Perhaps you or someone else you know may be one of the folks grappling with this very issue.

Suppose that you’ve taken out too many lines of credit and can’t manage them properly. Despite the past mistake in managing your personal finances, you might have thought about investing your money in order to earn healthy returns then using the proceeds to pay off your debt obligations. So if you already owe money to a number of credit card companies, should you invest the cash you have or use the funds to repay your debt?

On this topic, the verdict of the financial counselors is clear: you should first take care of your debts as you could be at risk of filing for bankruptcy or being sued. After casting off the burden, you can go about investing your hard-earned dollars. Further information on this subject is available in a separate article which talks about professional options to get out of debt.


Options to Ensure a Debt Free Life


An extreme approach to getting rid of debt is to declare personal bankruptcy. On the downside, though, this drastic move will land a crushing blow to your credit score. For the bulk of folks saddled by debt, however, there are far better ways to deal with the deadweight.

If you decide to pay off the money you owe on your credit cards, for instance, then you can turn to professional advisors such as counseling agencies that specialize in the consolidation of debt. In that case, a debt consultant can guide you through the process of unloading the burden. As an example, legal options might be available to you for lowering the rate of interest or extending the period of repayment in order to erase the entire obligation through a monthly program of affordable payments.


Crafting an Investment Plan After Repaying Debt

After casting off the chains of credit card debt, you can turn in earnest to the task of fixing up a robust program of investment. For starters, you should keep track of the latest developments in financial markets and investment vehicles in order to explore the full range of options available to you. Each type of asset comes with its own combo of strengths and drawbacks.

Moreover, you need to consider a welter of issues such as the maximum gain and the minimum loss in store. Due to the complexity of financial markets, though, hiring an investment advisor can pay plenty of dividends as you thrash out a program of investment tailored to your personal needs.

If you don’t have any debt hanging over you, you can focus on devoting your time, money and energy to the financial markets. As a prudent investor, you want to avoid any schemes meant to get rich quick, such as taking on margin or any other forms of leverage. In general, the flaky ploys for fat profits are far more likely to land you back in debt than make you rich.

To sum up, you need to take the safe and sound course in managing your personal finances. If you find yourself in debt, the first order of business is to take concrete steps to cast off the millstone. Then you should make sure to stay out of debt so that you can devote your money and energy toward pursuing a hearty program of investment.

– Marlon Powell





*       *       *

Top 3 Exchange Traded Funds for Canada, Mexico and USA

 
Best ETF Performance 
by Return, Volatility and Risk-Adjusted Gain



In order to pick a trusty vehicle for investing in North America, a good starting point is to line up the top exchange traded funds (ETFs) for Canada, Mexico and USA. For each country, an obvious choice is an index fund with a proven track record as a successful and popular choice amongst the pool of candidates listed in the U.S. stock market.

The next step is to examine the top contenders in terms of growth as well as risk. For a balanced view of performance, the period of evaluation should cover a stretch in which the market has experienced a boom as well as a bust. The index funds can then be compared in terms of the return on investment along with the level of volatility.

Another vital feature involves a compound measure of risk-adjusted return that takes into account the overall payoff as well as the usual level of turbulence in the interim. These factors are examined for the top index funds dealing with Canada, Mexico and the US; namely, EWC, EWW and SPY.

Performance of Exchange Traded Funds

To obtain a rounded view of performance, an investment vehicle has to be assessed over a longish period that includes at least one upsurge and one blowup of the market. For this purpose, a suitable stretch lies in the interval of five years ending in January 31, 2012. This window covers the blowups of the stock market in 2008 as well as 2011, along with the recovery of the bourse after each meltdown.

A compact tally of performance is given in the table below. The return on investment refers to the average annual gain over 5 years ending on January 31, 2012.



The data has been procured from Yahoo Finance (quote.yahoo.com), the most popular portal for investors on the information highway.

In the exhibit above, the column for the return on investment is colored mostly in green in order to reflect the fact that higher numbers denote better performance. The same is true for the last column, which displays a measure of risk-adjusted return known as the Sharpe ratio.

By contrast, the column for the beta level has been shaded in a ruddy hue in view of its unsettling impact on a portfolio. Admittedly, a high value of beta might be useful for a short-term speculator. On the other hand, lower values are preferable to higher ones for the bulk of actors in their role as genuine investors in the marketplace.

Within each column, the cell containing the best result is shaded in a golden hue. The chosen figure is the lowest value in the context of the beta factor, and the highest level for each of the other two performance measures.

According to the table above, Mexico turned in the best performance in terms of absolute gains. The average return on investment for EWW came out to 0.71 percent on an annual basis.

By contrast, the variability of returns over this period was lowest for SPY, which clocked a beta value of 0.99. We should keep in mind that the function of the exchange traded fund is to track the S&P index, which serves as the flagship benchmark for the U.S. stock market as a whole.

If the correspondence between the movements of the index fund and the target benchmark had been perfect, then the value of beta would have come out to 1.00. Despite the small discrepancy, though, the actual value of 0.99 was close enough to unity to fill the bill for the mass of investors.

In addition to its performance by way of overall gains, the index fund for Mexico also outpaced its rivals in terms of risk-adjusted returns by sporting a Sharpe ratio of 0.25. The latter number indicates that the average return came out to one-quarter of one percent for every percentage point of instability in the sequence of returns.

Meanwhile, the index fund for Canada also turned in a respectable showing in this area. In particular, the risky gain of 0.24 for EWC was nearly as high as the winning value of 0.25 by its Mexican rival.

Graphic View of Performance

A graphic display of the price action can provide an intuitive grasp of the marketplace. For this reason, a standard tool of financial analysis is a chart that compares the relative performance of the top candidates under consideration.

The exhibit below has been adapted from MSN Money (money.msn.com). The display shows the relative movement of the index funds over the course of five years ending in early 2012.





The trajectory of the index fund for USA – namely, SPY – has been sketched out in purple. Meanwhile, the corresponding path for Canada is rendered in blue while the trace for Mexico is painted in green.

In line with earlier remarks, the purpose of the S&P benchmark is to track the stocks of 500 large firms listed on the U.S. bourse. Each company covered by the index is a colossus of the real economy. Due to the size and stability of the outfits, the stocks within the benchmark tend to be more demure than the bulk of equities in the stock market.

For this reason, the S&P index is apt to be less flighty than the corresponding yardsticks for the other countries. In that case, the same pattern should apply to their respective index funds.

Not surprisingly, SPY turned out to be the least volatile of the three funds. By contrast, EWC was the most jittery while EWW was somewhat less so.

Over the span of 5 years covered by the chart, the payoff for EWW usually trailed behind that for EWC. Even so, the Mexican fund pulled slightly ahead of its northern rival toward the end of the stretch.

In this way, the diagram reflects the fact that EWW was the winning fund over the course of half a decade. From the chart, another plausible result involves the advantage of the Mexican fund over the Canadian pool on the basis of risk-adjusted payoff.

On the other hand, the lead in terms of risky growth enjoyed by EWW is far from obvious based on the graphic display. In this respect, at least, the numeric output given earlier provides more clarity than the visual layout. In particular, the Sharpe value for the Mexican fund was a tad higher than the corresponding figure for its Canadian rival.

Further Information

In sizing up an asset for investment in any field, the prospective return has to be weighed against the risk entailed. The crucial factors to consider are surveyed in the section on Financial Risk at MintKit Core: http://www.mintkit.com/risk.

A primer titled “How to Invest in Exchange Traded Funds” gives the lowdown on growth and risk for exchange traded funds. The review also applies the general guidelines to a case study of index funds for the emerging markets of Brazil, China, India and Russia – http://w.mintkit.com/2012/02/how-to-invest-in-exchange-traded-funds.html.

The data available on exchange traded funds is often patchy, faulty and/or misleading. The stumbling blocks, along with defensive moves for the wary investor, are discussed in an article on “Cruddy Information on Exchange Traded Funds” under the section on Investment Funds at MintKit: http://www.mintkit.com/investment-funds.


*       *       *

 

How to Invest in Exchange Traded Funds

 
Primer and Model 
of 
Top Index Funds for Emerging Markets


In order to invest in exchange traded funds (ETFs), the crucial task is to compile a list of the top candidates then compare them in terms of growth as well as risk. For this purpose, the core criteria include the average return on investment along with the habitual variation in payoffs over time. Moreover, the net gain and the flighty behavior of any asset – including index funds and/or exchange traded funds – can be combined into a single measure in the form of a risk-adjusted return.

In addition to the return on investment and the risk of loss, another type of issue involves the nature of the data set. More precisely, the profile of the database – relating to the period of evaluation and the rate of sampling between observations – has a vital impact on the results.

To obtain a rounded picture of performance, the window of appraisal ought to cover a stretch in which the ETFs have experienced at least one surge as well as one crash of the market. This primer provides a starting point for the mindful person who plans to invest in exchange traded funds, while showcasing the task through a bunch of top index funds for the emerging markets of Brazil, China, India and Russia.






*       *       *

 

Market Outlook for the Early 2010s


Forecast of the Stock Market and Global Economy


A systematic approach to investing requires a prediction of the stock market and the global economy, whether the call happens to be a precise forecast or a rough guesstimate. As a backdrop for picturing the markets downrange, the main event of 2011 was the breakdown of the equity market along with the turmoil in neighboring fields such as commodities and currencies.

One reason for the hullabaloo stemmed from the fitful progress of the economy in developed countries like the U.S., Britain and Japan. Another factor stemmed from the tizzy over the debt crisis in southern Europe, along with widespread fears of a breakup of the euro and collapse of the economy across the continent. These worries brought up the specter of a world plunging into a full-blown recession.

Despite the current jitters in the marketplace, however, the global economy is slated to expand by more than 3% in 2012. Meanwhile the corresponding figure for the U.S. is about 2% even as Europe ekes out a paltry gain.

On the financial front, the stock markets of the mature economies are likely to expand by roughly 16% before the year is out. Better yet, the bourses in the emerging countries should surge by 30% or so.

On a different note, the smackdown of the stock market last year cropped up in sync with the long-range schedule of crashes. As a result, the sequence of blowouts appears to be on track in spite of the muddled breakdown – rather than a clear-cut collapse – after the bourse touched a peak in 2007. As things stand, the next crash of the stock market is likely to occur around 2017 in tune with the running tempo of bombshells since the previous century.


Electronic Book

The write-up above gives an overview of an electronic book on the subject. The full account, comprising 31 pages in PDF form, is available for free. You are welcome to read the contents online or to download a copy of the ebook at this location: Market Outlook for the Early 2010s.

You may note that the font is more crisp if you download the file then view the text using a PDF reader, rather than peruse the document on a Web browser.


*       *       *